June data is rolling in, and overall it has not been very impressive. Even so, the second quarter has been in line with forecasts made at the start of the year, with some a little higher and some a little lower (see chart). All data is showing a major improvement over year-ago numbers and yr/yr growth curves are rising. By next quarter all except most lagging indicators (regrettably that includes employment) should have positive yr/yr growth. Being better than the worst recession in decades still leaves much room for improvement, but the economy continues on the right track.

To see the full July economic forecast, log into MyMTI and CLICK on the Economic Forecast under the Featured Resources Box.

The U.S. economy reached its cyclical/recession low in the fourth quarter of 2009 and began a solid recovery in the first quarter. So far the second quarter has shown continued growth, although there has been nervousness over slow job creation and the European economy. The high point for this year has been a steady improvement in manufacturing. Leading indicators such as the Purchasing Managers Index and the ratio of durable goods orders to inventory strongly indicate continued gains in industrial production through the year. Growth in manufacturing will make up for much of its sharp drop in 2009, although the economy is not
expected to recover to the heights of 2006-2008 at any time soon.

Quarterly billings for MTI have recovered rapidly from the recession and are, surprisingly close to levels of the “boom years.” This is well ahead of the rest of the economy. Billings are on track to end this year 23.1% better than 2009. There should be additional 6% gains in 2011 as the overall economy stabilizes and settles into a more sustainable growth rate.  To see the full Heat Treat Outlook Report, log into MyMTI and CLICK on the Heat Treat Outlook Report in the Featured Resource Box.

By David Pye - Pye Metallurgical Consulting

The subject of training in heat treatment has always been a controversial subject as to its merits and contributions to the betterment of the heat treating industry. Heat treatment is often considered an unskilled trade or profession, but it is the skill and knowledge of the heat treater that will literally ‘make or break’ the product being treated.

The educational arm of further education does not cater for the heat treater or its middle management. The educational arm will contribute significantly to the knowledge base of the undergraduate student who is pursuing a degree in metallurgy or materials science. But not everyone is able to follow the career path of the career metallurgist.

Each year, MTI has a few Board seats that become vacant due to terms expiring. Serving on the MTI Board of Trustees is a very valuable experience that requires a time and financial commitment.  The Board typically meets 3 to 4 times a year. They oversee the overall strategic plan and its execution with MTI staff, discuss and propose action items that help enhance the image of the heat treating industry and work with staff to continually create programs that can help maximize member's productivity and profitabilty.